As the Texas Longhorns gear up for the 2026 season, expectations are high. Coach Steve Sarkisian is under pressure, backed by a roster filled with talent and experience. ESPN鈥檚 Football Power Index (FPI) forecasts a strong showing, giving Texas a greater than 50% win probability in each of their games, with an implied regular season win total of 9.76.

By the Numbers
  • Texas has a 98.4% chance to win against Texas State on September 5.
  • Their projected win probability against Ohio State on September 12 is 53.7%.
  • Overall, they are favored in every scheduled game, including a 10-2 projected finish.
Yes, But

Despite favorable odds, past performances show that being the favorite doesn't guarantee an undefeated season. The Longhorns will face stiff competition in the SEC, making it crucial to stay resilient throughout the season.

State of Play
  • Texas enters the season with a highly-rated lineup, suggesting potential for great performance.
  • There is a competitive landscape in the SEC with teams like Georgia, Alabama, and LSU also vying for dominance.
What's Next

Looking ahead, the Longhorns will need to leverage their predicted strengths to translate them into actual wins. Continued focus on teamwork and strategic play will be essential to meet playoff aspirations.

Bottom Line

The Texas Longhorns are positioned for success, but achieving their championship goals will depend on navigating a challenging schedule and performing under pressure. They must turn predictions into reality to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.