The trend of FCS teams upsetting Power Four opponents is dwindling, with Power conference teams currently on a 125-game winning streak against FCS competition. The last notable upset occurred in 2023, when Sacramento State defeated Stanford, marking the end of a two-year drought for such surprises. The disparity in talent has widened due to factors like the transfer portal and NIL deals, making it increasingly harder for FCS programs to retain their best players. The 2026 season will feature six matchups where FCS teams may have a chance to shock Power Four adversaries.

By the Numbers
  • Power conference teams have won 125 straight games against FCS opponents.
  • Since the NIL era began in 2022, FBS power conference teams are 223-2 (.991) against FCS teams.
State of Play
  • Six notable FCS teams are set to face Power Four opponents in the 2026 season.
  • Current transfer portal activity suggests FCS talent drain is worsening, impacting performance chances.
What's Next

The upcoming 2026 matchups could provide opportunities for FCS teams to break the streak, particularly among teams with key returning players and recent strong performances. Schools like South Dakota State and Youngstown State are highlighted as potential upset candidates based on past records and talent levels.

Bottom Line

While the odds are stacked against FCS teams in 2026, the potential exists for a significant upset that could reignite interest in these matchups; watch for key games featuring returning stars as possible turning points.