Michael McGreevy has emerged as a solid contributor to the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation, posting a 3.35 ERA in his first 15 starts. Despite this success, advanced metrics suggest he may be overperforming, as indicated by a 5.70 expected ERA and low strikeout rates. His success can be attributed to excellent command and a varied pitch mix that allows him to get batters out effectively, demonstrating the value of control over raw power in modern pitching.

By the Numbers
  • 3.35 ERA in 15 starts, ranking 15th in the National League.
  • 120 ERA+ and averaging 5.5 innings per start, ranking him among the top in the Cardinals' rotation.
  • 5.70 expected earned run average and an expected batting average of .294.
State of Play
  • McGreevy is currently seen as a foundational piece in the Cardinals' rotation.
  • St. Louis lacks starting pitchers with a two-WAR season, highlighting the need for stability.
  • Despite concerns over regression, McGreevy's command and deep pitch repertoire keep him productive.
What's Next

As the season progresses, the key question will be whether McGreevy can maintain his performance levels amid the pressures of a full-length season. Continued improvements in command and adaptability could solidify his role as a reliable starter for the Cardinals moving forward.

Bottom Line

While statistical projections indicate potential regression for McGreevy, his ability to command the zone and induce weak contact makes him more than a fluke. The Cardinals could benefit significantly from his steady presence in the rotation, reinforcing the value of pitchability in a landscape increasingly dominated by power pitching.