Tom Fornelli reveals five college football teams he believes will exceed expectations heading into the 2026 season. Among these teams, the Florida Gators stand out with a win total forecast of 7.5, bolstered by coaching changes and an advantageous schedule. Kansas State's Avery Johnson shows promise with an 8.5 win projection, aided by favorable matchups against Big 12 opponents. Other teams include Michigan State, where new head coach Pat Fitzgerald may lead the Spartans out of a four-year bowl drought, and USC, where returning players aim to shape a playoff-contending squad. Lastly, Virginia Tech under James Franklin seeks resurgence in the ACC with a win total of 6.5.

By the Numbers
  • Florida Gators projected win total: 7.5
  • Kansas State's win total set at 8.5
  • Michigan State pegged at 3.5 wins
  • USC's returners include QB Jayden Maiava
  • Virginia Tech's projected win total: 6.5
Yes, But

While enthusiasm for these teams abounds, past failures and fluctuating performance levels could temper expectations. For instance, Michigan State's transition under Fitzgerald comes with skepticism about adapting to the evolving college football landscape, including NIL dynamics.

State of Play
  • Florida Gators' coaching upgrade positions them for SEC competition.
  • Kansas State looks to avoid tough Big 12 opponents for a favorable outcome.
  • USC aims to improve its defensive performance from last season.
  • Virginia Tech has a manageable schedule, enhancing its chances for a turnaround.
What's Next

As teams prepare for the upcoming season, developments in coaching strategies and player performances will be critical. Florida and USC's coaching impact may significantly influence their playoff aspirations, while Michigan State and Virginia Tech will need to demonstrate adaptability to enhance their win totals.

Bottom Line

Fornelli's picks highlight potential breakout teams, balancing hope with a history of unpredictability in college football. Keep an eye on these teams as they navigate the challenges ahead, with the possibility of surprising outcomes as a compelling story unfolds.