The Texas Longhorns enter the 2026 season facing significant challenges that may hinder their success. Last season ended with a disappointing 9-3 record, and the team has a history of falling short of win expectations in 8 of the last 11 seasons. With a demanding schedule ahead, including tough road games against top teams and uncertain quarterback performance from Arch Manning, experts predict Texas will struggle to exceed its win total of 9.5 games.

By the Numbers
  • Texas has gone under its win total in 8 out of the last 11 seasons.
  • Current implied probability for Texas winning 9 or fewer games in 2026 is 55.56% (-125 odds).
Yes, But

Despite the criticisms, Texas has shown potential for improvement under Coach Sarkisian, and a successful performance from Manning could alter predictions. High expectations remain for Manning, who is a Heisman Trophy contender, but inconsistency remains a concern.

State of Play
  • Texas faces a challenging schedule, including games against Ohio State, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.
  • The defense has lost several key players to the NFL, leading to uncertainties in performance.
What's Next

The Longhorns need Manning to rise to the occasion as the season progresses. If he delivers elite gameplay, Texas could become a playoff contender, but a dip in performance could mean another underwhelming season awaits.

Bottom Line

Texas appears poised to fall short of lofty expectations again in 2026, as their historical pattern of underperformance, coupled with a tough schedule and defensive uncertainties, significantly clouds their win total outlook.