The NFL is facing potential regression for several teams that had standout seasons last year, notably the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears. Both franchises enjoyed extraordinary luck with close games, favorable schedules, and impressive performances that seem unlikely to repeat. The Bears had notable turnover differentials, while the Patriots benefited from an easy strength of schedule and exceptional injury luck. As expectations rise for these teams, realities of either roster aging or tougher competition loom large. Two other teams, the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars, also face similar regression indicators due to previous season successes.

By the Numbers
  • The Bears were +22 in turnover differential, the highest in the NFL.
  • The Patriots had one of the easiest schedules last season as ranked by DVOA.
  • The Jaguars had a +13 turnover differential, relying heavily on luck.
Yes, But

While regression appears likely, factors like the expected growth of players such as Caleb Williams for the Bears and a young core for the Patriots could soften the impact. These improvements could potentially help mitigate the downturn associated with tougher competition or past performance luck.

State of Play
  • The Patriots' performance last season relied heavily on injury luck, being the luckiest team according to adjusted games lost metrics.
  • The Bears transition to facing the sixth toughest schedule, escalating their chances of a drop in win totals.
What's Next

As teams prepare for the upcoming season, the focus will be on how they adjust their strategies to cope with regression elements. Improved individual performances and roster decisions will be critical, especially for the Bears and Patriots in maintaining competitive status in their respective divisions.

Bottom Line

Expect regression for teams like the Patriots and Bears who exceeded expectations last season. Historical patterns suggest that maintaining high win counts is difficult without adjustments, and lucky breaks from the previous season are unlikely to repeat. Teams must adapt to their new realities to avoid significant downturns in their performance.